The Case for Lucy McBath

Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA)

If you were able to see past the imaginary hurricane that is about to hit Alabama at any moment (at this point does it genuinely seem like he's rooting for a US State to actually be ravaged by a natural disaster just so he can say "I told you so?"), you might have noticed today a scuttle on Politics Twitter about the Georgia Senate race.  As we outlined a few days ago, the recent resignation of Sen. Johnny Isakson means that the Peach State will have two Senate elections next year, and one of them will be for an open seat.  This comes just a few months after Georgia saw a lot of Democrats get very close to winning statewide (though none ultimately got across the finish line-again, check out that link); additionally, recent polling shows current Democratic nominee frontrunner Joe Biden beating Donald Trump by 6-points, meaning that Georgia is a state that could be competitive next year.  With the battle for a Democratic Senate majority likely requiring at least one victory where the left would be considered underdogs as of today, news that the Democrats are potentially on the verge of a huge recruiting coup are worth considering.  So, let's take a look at what it'd mean to have Rep. Lucy McBath run for the Senate next year, as she seems to be at least speculating about such a run.

McBath, for those that are unfamiliar, has not been in the US House, or for that matter politics, for very long.  A former flight attendant, McBath made national headlines in 2012, when her 17-year-old son Jordan Davis was murdered outside of a gas station.  McBath quickly became an advocate for gun safety, attending a ceremony at the White House for Barack Obama and speaking on behalf of Hillary Clinton at the 2016 Democratic National Convention.  Her race in 2018 was dismissed by many (I'll admit I didn't predict her victory, and upon re-reading my elections article mentioning her preceding the midterms, was so unaware of her candidacy that I misspelled her name in it), but she pulled off the victory and has become one of the more visible members of the new Democratic Caucus.  Becoming a US Senator would be another big step into the national spotlight, but hardly one that McBath isn't familiar with.

We're going to look at this from different angles-the Democratic Party's, McBath's herself, and throughout how the actual race itself would play out.  From the perspective of the Democratic Party, recruiting McBath would be about as good as Chuck Schumer could possibly hope for, save getting Stacey Abrams into the race (because she has statewide exposure in a tight campaign, I think Abrams would be a slightly better candidate, but not by much & I could be convinced otherwise).  McBath is a sitting congresswoman who is a proven fundraiser and has an impressive profile.  She defeated an incumbent Republican congresswoman in a region of Georgia she'll have to do well in to get her seat in the first place.  And while winning a Senate seat would be worth giving up a House seat (the Democrats have enough they could afford to spare this one if it got them an upper chamber spot), the 6th has the sort of profile that could be difficult for the Republicans to gain back, even in an open election; Trump barely won it in 2016, Stacey Abrams did win it in 2018 (along with, of course, McBath), and it's possible that in 2020 someone like Joe Biden could take the seat on his own, potentially carrying along the Democrat with him.  In fact, McBath is a high-profile enough candidate, and three of her highest-profile opponents live near enough to the sixth (Jon Ossoff, Michelle Nunn, and Jason Carter) that they might just let her have the nomination unopposed.

Geography is crucial here, because demographics are going to be a big part of why Chuck Schumer might also support McBath.  Next year there will be two Georgia Senate races, potentially both of which could end up in a runoff, and so Schumer would do well to pick two candidates that will appeal to different bases in the state.  After all, history is pretty consistent on state's that have dual Senate races in the same cycle-they tend to go for the same party.  The leading Democrat right now for the US Senate in the other race (against incumbent-Sen. David Perdue) is former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson.  Tomlinson hails from the fourth largest metro area in the state (McBath from the Atlanta suburbs), so they could help each other out by driving up support for the ticket in different areas of the state.  McBath is African-American and Tomlinson is white, so in a state where Democrats need to turnout both African-American communities as well as white progressives, this could also be key to both women's successes.  All-in-all, this is a home run for the Democratic Party as a whole, as they get an (on-paper) dream team as their Senate candidates-two women that will appeal to different elements/bases of a state that could be ready to go blue if enough stars align.

Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson (D-GA)

The bigger question is what does McBath get out of this, and this hearkens to whether or not she has a chance to win.  Despite the changes in Georgia, Republicans are still the majority party, and thanks to runoff election laws that will preclude either McBath or Tomlinson from winning by plurality, it's a tough road for a Democrat who wants to win here, even one with McBath's track record.  Running would be a big risk, one that has more opportunity for failure than reward.  McBath is not similar to, say, now-Sen. Jacky Rosen, the only woman (to date) who has ever gone from being a first-term congresswoman and immediately getting a promotion to first-term senator (which is what McBath is attempting to do).  Rosen had a much bluer state, one with a lot more reasons for Democrats to hope for success, and instead McBath would be looking for a blue-moon win like Joe Donnelly in 2012, where the Republicans helped by screwing up (something McBath won't have a guarantee of).  It's worth remembering that when Johnny Isakson first came to office, he did so by beating a first-term African-American congresswoman from the Atlanta area (Denise Majette) in a landslide.

But the theoretical reward might be too great for McBath.  There is a lot more power for a backbencher senator than a backbencher congresswoman (to the point where the Senate doesn't really have backbenchers in the modern era).  More importantly, McBath, were she to win, would likely be delivering a Senate majority along with her victory, giving her party immense power over the legislative agenda (if McBath is able to win, it's probable she'll have a Democratic House and White House along with her).  Not to be too corny, but this would present McBath the opportunity to craft meaningful legislation on the issue that she came to DC to create: a comprehensive gun control bill.  It's probable that Schumer, grateful for the majority she delivered, would let her take the lead on the bill in the Senate, and with a Senate majority, would likely help pass the first major gun control legislation since the early days of the Clinton administration.  For a woman who never intended to be a professional politician, and who came into the public spotlight in the most heartbreaking way imaginable, it's easy to see why such an incredible, meaningful end result to her political career might be worth the risk of losing her spot in Congress.